THURSDAY: Expect sunny to mostly sunny skies to win the day with temperatures, while cooler, still running a bit above average. Highs will top out in the lower to middle 70s. Skies remain mostly clear tonight as lows drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s.
FRIDAY: Rounding out the work week with more sunshine and seasonably mild temperatures. Morning 40s and 50s will give way to afternoon lower and middle 70s again.
EXTENDED FORECAST: A warm front will push across the region Saturday – pushing highs into the upper 70s to near 80 as a muggier air mass returns briefly. Saturday will remain quiet and dry though with filtered sunshine. Another system will move through Sunday bringing an opportunity for a few storms. In its wake, a push of cooler air will return, bring temperatures to more Fall-esque levels with highs in the 60s early next week.
TROPICS: Eta made a landfall early this morning near Cedar Key, north of Tampa. The storm will continue to weaken as it feels wind shear from the west and cooler waters near the coast. The storm will get pulled northeastward toward Florida’s First Coast and eventually is absorbed by a stalled front into the weekend. Its moisture will be pushed northward through the mid-Atlantic states, causing flooding concerns. Elsewhere in the tropics, Theta continues its trek eastward toward the Azores and another system could form in the Caribbean later this week.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
November 2020
November 12, 2020
November 10, 2020
Fall Mugginess Continues Ahead of Next Front
TUESDAY: Early fall warmth will continue as temperatures run well above average – expect morning 60s trending toward the 70s and lower 80s again by the afternoon with a variably cloudy sky. A shower or two could develop through the afternoon hours – but many areas will remain dry. Clouds will hang around tonight – along with a few showers here and there – expect lows in the 60s.
WEDNESDAY: A front will slip through the region – helping to spark a few showers through morning hours of Veteran’s Day, gradually clearing into the afternoon hours as the front shifts farther south. Highs will top out in the middle to upper 70s before dropping in the wake of the front and a cooler northwest flow moving into the region. Expect skies to continue clearing with lows in the 50s by early Thursday.
EXTENDED FORECAST: In the wake of our front, temperature will run a few clicks cooler through the latter part of the week. Highs will be in the 70s, though morning lows will be in the 50s. A warm front will push across the region Saturday – pushing highs into the middle to upper 70s again amid a muggier air mass. Another system will move through over the weekend bringing an opportunity of rain and storms. In its wake, a push of cooler air will return, bring temperatures to more Fall-esque levels.
TROPICS: Eta will be a big factor in the forecast for the Florida peninsula through the week ahead – bringing waves of rain and wind as the system slows down and meanders off the western shores of the state. There has been a westward shift in the guidance due to the uncertainty of the strength of the ridge and the approaching fronts. At this point, we still expect the core of the storm away from Mississippi – keeping us on the subsident side of the storm through much of the week. In the extended range, some of Eta’s moisture could be strung up along the approaching front by the weekend, bringing a better chance for rain to the region. We’ll continue to monitor this over the next couple of days.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
November 09, 2020
Above-Average Temperatures, Below-Average Rain Chances
MONDAY: Heading back to work and school on this Monday with a few banks of low clouds and fog to greet you out the door initially. Expect morning 60s to give way to afternoon 70s and lower 80s with a partly sunny sky. We’ll fall back into the lower to middle 60s as clouds gradually increase again after midnight.
TUESDAY: Early fall warmth will continue as temperatures run well above average – expect morning 60s trending toward the 70s and lower 80s again by the afternoon with a variably cloudy sky. A shower or two could develop through the afternoon hours – but many areas will remain dry.
EXTENDED FORECAST: With high pressure anchored off the southeast coast, an approaching trough from the west and Eta to our southeast, we’ll be stuck in a warm, muggier pattern through much of the week, especially comparatively to our average. A front will slip through mid-week – up-ticking rain chances slightly Wednesday and filtering in slightly cooler air – where highs will run in the middle 70s into late week. Another system will approach by the weekend bringing an opportunity of rain and storms by the weekend.
TROPICS: Eta will be a big factor in the forecast for the Florida peninsula through the week ahead – bringing waves of rain and wind as the system slows down and meanders off the western shores of the state. Due to the approaching fronts coming from the west, it should keep the storm away from Mississippi – keeping us on the subsident side of the storm and keeping our forecast drier than not through the week ahead. While that is the case, for now, we’ll continue to monitor the situation throughout the week ahead.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
November 05, 2020
Filtered Sunshine, Mild Thursday
THURSDAY: A weak disturbance will approach the region – it will likely hold just west of us, but it will bring an uptick in clouds through the day. Highs will top out in the lower to, a few, middle 70s. Clouds will ease out of the area through the day, trending partly clear by afternoon. Expect lows to fall into the 50s by early Friday.
FRIDAY: High pressure to our east continues to flow in warmer, muggier air across the Magnolia State. Expect a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the middle 70s. A stray shower or two can’t be ruled out, but most will remain dry.
EXTENDED FORECAST: High pressure will remain anchored off the southeast coast – the easterly to southeasterly flow toward our area will bring partly sunny skies with a chance for showers and few storms into the weekend. Temperatures will run in the middle to upper 70s. Looking ahead into next week will feature warm temperatures early week and an approaching front through mid-week. We’ll also keep an eye on the Gulf of Mexico as the remnants of Eta could enter the basin by early week.
TROPICS: Eta is nearing a time where its core will emerge back over open waters – yet, still dumping copious amounts of rain over Central America. Flooding will continue to be main concern through early week. Eta’s path could bring potential impacts of rain and wind in south Florida into next week, but its eventual path could lead it into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. We’ll keep a close eye on the storm over the next few days.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
November 02, 2020
Quiet, Yet Cool Monday
MONDAY: A dry cold front swept through the region over the weekend – in its wake, we’ll run cooler to start off the new work and school week. Expect breezes to calm down early as prevalent sunshine warms temperatures from the 30s and 40s into the upper 50s and lower 60s by the afternoon hours. Skies will remain clear overnight, light winds, allowing for temperatures to fall into the 30s – patchy frost may be possible by early Tuesday morning.
ELECTION DAY TUESDAY: A nippy start for many, a frosty start for some – overall, a great day to get to the polls Tuesday. Polls will be open from 7 AM – 7 PM; morning 30s will give way to highs in the 60s to near 70 amid a full complement of sunshine. If you are heading to the polls after work, have a jacket handy as temperatures will fall back quickly – into the 50s by the close of polls, lower 40s by early Wednesday morning.
EXTENDED FORECAST: Post-election, the sunrise will rise again on the eastern horizon at 6:21 AM – we'll keep it the sunshine going, amid a few passing clouds with highs in the lower 70s by the afternoon hours after a chilly start in the lower 40s. A weak disturbance will pass through Thursday – bringing clouds to the region. Highs will stay in the lower 70s; we’ll make a run into the middle and upper 70s through late week and into the weekend amid a mix of clouds and sun. A few wayward showers may flare up on the eastern side of an expansive high pressure ridge off the Atlantic coast.
TROPICS: Eta, now a hurricane, will continue to move westward - making a run for category 4 status before making landfall in Nicaragua Tuesday. The storm will likely linger over central America through much of the week, causing life threatening flooding. In some areas, upward of 2′ of rain will be possible. The expansive nature of the system could even bring heavy rain issues to Jamaica, Mexico, Haiti, the Cayman Islands and El Salvador through late week as it meanders. The storm, much diminished, could re-emerge into the NW Caribbean by the weekend and regroup itself.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx