MONDAY: Starting off the new work and school week will feature more August heat and humidity along with an opportunity of scattered storms, mainly during the afternoon hours. Expect a mix of clouds and sun with highs in the lower to middle 90s with feels like temperatures running between 102-108°. Storms will fade after sunset with lows in the middle 70s.
TUESDAY: Lather, rinse and repeat on the heat and humidity, though rain chances will be a touch lower as drier air does start sneak into the region. Expect highs in the lower, to a few, middle 90s with a few afternoon storms popping up amid a mix of clouds and sunshine.
EXTENDED FORECAST: Drier air will push its way into the area through mid-week, pushing temperatures a touch warmer, though humidity levels will not as high. With lower humidity levels, rain chances will drop off for Wednesday and Thursday. Gradually, moisture will sneak back in later in the week, bringing back better chances for rain by the weekend – though we don’t anticipate a washout amid highs, generally, in the 90s.
TROPICS: As we inch closer to the statistical peak of the season, the tropics continue to feature a fair amount of activity that may try to develop into consolidated systems over the next few days. One – a system moving off Florida will continue to move out to sea through mid-week. Two – a wave moving into the Caribbean has a high chance of development; we’ll be watching this one closely, but looks to be an issue for Central America later in the week. Farther out, two more tropical waves moving into the Main Development Region that have low chances of development through the next few days.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
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August 2020
August 31, 2020
August 28, 2020
Scattered Tropical Downpours Continue Friday
FRIDAY: As Laura continues to unravel in the mid-Mississippi Valley, it will still have a moisture connection the Gulf of Mexico – that could flare up over the area, bringing the possibility for flooding rains amid gusty wind and another spin-up tornado risk. Highs will be in the middle and upper 80s amid a breezy southwest wind. Storms will tend to fade after sunset as lows drop into the 70s.
WEEKEND PLANNER: As Laura finally begins to pull away from the region, the muggy air left behind in its wake will help to spark chances for showers and storms heading into the weekend. There could be a small lull in activity Saturday with highs a little deeper into the 90s again. We’ll trend cooler again by Sunday as a disturbance moves in to kick up around round of storms amid highs in the upper 80s to near 90.
EXTENDED FORECAST: Laura’s soupy airmass will remain, even into the start of next week. The soupy airmass will likely spawn more opportunities for rain and storms through Tuesday with highs near 90. Rain chances will tend to fade away into the latter portion of the week to more of a general afternoon, pop-up, variety of storms with highs around 90, lows in the 70s.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
August 27, 2020
ALERT DAY: Impacts From Laura Continue Thursday
LAURA IMPACTS THURSDAY: We expect ‘fringe impacts’ from Hurricane Laura as it moves inland. Laura will feature a much broader circulation than Marco – so its impacts will be felt farther away from the center. Locally, highest impacts will be west of I-55 with the possibility of tropical storm force gusts Thursday amid periods of heavy rain, storms and the possibility of spin-up tornadoes. Generally, winds will run, sustained, around 15-30 mph; gusts could be between 30-50 mph; rainfall amounts will run around 1-3" in most instances and sporadic power outages can’t be ruled out. This won’t be a constant rain, but bands of rain will rotate in, keeping the weather unsettled throughout the day. Highs will top out in the 80s.
FRIDAY: As Laura continues to unravel in the mid-Mississippi Valley, it will still have a moisture connection the Gulf of Mexico – that could flare up over the area, bringing the possibility for flooding rains amid gusty wind and another spin-up tornado risk. Highs will be in the middle and upper 80s amid a breezy southwest wind. Storms will tend to fade after sunset as lows drop into the 70s.
EXTENDED FORECAST: In the wake of Laura, a soupy airmass will remain. Gradually, we’ll transition back to a more typical pattern amid the soupy airmass into the weekend and next week with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s with scattered storms on a daily basis.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
August 26, 2020
Hot, Steamy Wednesday; ALERT DAY for Laura Impacts Thursday
WEDNESDAY: Expect today to be a transition day as we move away from Marco’s remnant circulation and the broad circulation around Laura, still well south in the Gulf, beginning to overtake. A mix of clouds and sun will be possible with highs in the lower to middle 90s. A few gusty storms could move in across south Mississippi late in the day. We’ll watch them closely for possible rotation in those far outer bands into the early evening hours. Storm risk will fade for a few hours overnight before Laura makes landfall in Louisiana or Texas early Thursday.
LAURA IMPACTS THURSDAY: We expect ‘fringe impacts’ from Hurricane Laura as it moves inland. Laura will feature a much broader circulation than Marco – so its impacts will be felt farther away from the center. Locally, highest impacts will be west of I-55 with the possibility of tropical storm force gusts late Wednesday through Thursday amid periods of heavy rain, storms and the possibility of spin-up tornadoes. Rainfall amounts will run around 1-3" in most instances and sporadic power outages can’t be ruled out. Again, generally, a low impact situation but could still cause issues for some, not all.
EXTENDED FORECAST: In the wake of Laura, a soupy airmass will remain, flaring up showers and storms again for Friday that could yield of some of the same issues as Thursday’s storms. Gradually, we’ll transition back to a more typical pattern amid the soupy airmass into the weekend and next week with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s with scattered storms on a daily basis.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
August 25, 2020
Heavy Rain Potential From Marco Remnants Tuesday
TUESDAY: More clouds will be invading the region through the Tuesday – eventually, rain chances will follow suit through the day. Expect tropical downpours circulating around Marco’s circulation to impact the region with squally weather on occasion – featuring heavy rain, gusty wind with localized flooding a concern. Highs will manage the 80s amid a soupy airmass. Storms will gradually fade late as lows drop into the middle and upper 70s.
MID-WEEK: As Marco continues onshore and fades; Laura will be hot on its heels in the Gulf of Mexico, strengthening, given Marco adjusting the atmosphere ahead of it to be able to blossom. The storm will likely continue westward before turning north Wednesday, making landfall west of our area. Once again, being on the east side of a landfalling hurricane will likely yield occasional squalls, gusty winds amid them and the risk for spin-up tornadoes. But, this part of the forecast is still highly changeable - expect more updates as we near closer.
LATE WEEK: As Laura pulls away from the region, we’ll be left in a soupy air mass that will yield scattered to numerous storms on a daily basis into the upcoming weekend. While there will drier times, there will be a fair share of wetter hours to dodge with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
August 24, 2020
Marco Approaches Northern Gulf Coast; Local Impacts Possible Late Monday, Tuesday
MONDAY: Starting off the new work and school week; all eyes on are on the tropics as Tropical Storm Marco approaches south Louisiana later today. Back in central Mississippi – we'll be starting the day off with sunshine over the region. Gradually, through the day, storm opportunities will increase from south to north; yet, not everyone will see storms through the day. Expect highs ranging from the 80s to lower 90s. Occasional squalls may affect the region Monday night into early Tuesday - yielding the possibility of localized flooding, gusty winds and a spin-up tornado risk.
LOCAL MARCO IMPACTS: Generally, we will remain with indirect impacts from the storm as it moves onshore with the core of the winds remaining south of the area. We, likely, will not deal with consistent and persistent rains – though occasional squalls could bring gusty winds amid the downpours and a risk for a spin-up tornado late Monday into Tuesday. Sporadic power outages can’t be ruled out, but widespread grid shut-downs won’t be likely.
MID-WEEK: As Marco is moving onshore and fading; Laura will be hot on its heels in the Gulf of Mexico, strengthening, given Marco adjusting the atmosphere ahead of it to be able to blossom. The storm will likely continue westward before turning north Wednesday, making landfall west of our area. Once again, being on the east side of a landfalling hurricane will likely yield occasional squalls, gusty winds amid them and the risk for spin-up tornadoes. But, this part of the forecast is still highly changeable - expect more updates as we near closer.
LATE WEEK: As Laura pulls away from the region, we’ll be left in a soupy air mass that will yield scattered to numerous storms on a daily basis into the upcoming weekend. While there will drier times, there will be a fair share of wetter hours to dodge with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
August 20, 2020
Downpour Potential Elevated Late Week; Watching Tropics
THURSDAY: The nearly stalled front, coupled with a weak disturbance riding along It, will help to spark the chance for showers and storms, mainly during the afternoon hours. Expect a mix of clouds and sun with highs in the 80s to near 90. Storms may have some staying power after sunset for a few hours – yielding pockets of heavy rain and lightning. Most will fizzle by midnight with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
FRIDAY: Expect another round of scattered showers and storms as our stalled front hangs around central and south Mississippi. An area of low pressure will trek across the area, helping to spark downpours, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will top out in the 80s, mostly. Storms will fade after sunset with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
EXTENDED FORECAST: Eventually, the front will fade away and gradually, humidity level and temperatures will creep back upward into the weekend. Expect highs in the upper 80s to near 90 Friday; lower 90s this weekend and into next week; lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
TROPICS: Tropical Depression 14 has formed in the western Caribbean. This system could strengthen into a tropical storm by tomorrow as it nears the Yucatan Peninsula. After tracking over the Yucatan this weekend, it’ll emerge into the western Gulf and could make its way toward the Texas Coastal Bend by early next week. Tropical Depression 13 formed east of the Caribbean could become a tropical storm as early as today – and will take a track north of the Greater Antilles and could bring it to a point near the Florida Straits by next week, possibly as a hurricane. As of now, no immediate threats to our part of the world, but changes are likely to happen over the next few days and will need to be monitored closely.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
August 19, 2020
A Touch Cooler Wednesday; Rain Chances Late Week
THURSDAY: The nearly stalled front, coupled with a weak disturbance riding along It, will help to spark the chance for showers and storms, mainly during the afternoon hours. Expect a mix of clouds and sun with highs in the 80s to near 90. Most storms will fizzle after sunset as lows dip into the 60s to near 70.
EXTENDED FORECAST: The stalled front to our south will keep opportunities for rain present into Friday. Eventually, the front will fade away and gradually, humidity level and temperatures will creep back upward into the weekend. Expect highs in the upper 80s to near 90 Friday; lower 90s this weekend and into next week; lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
TROPICS: Several other waves through the main development region will likely try to gain strength and organization over the next few days. The lead wave will move into the Caribbean and will need to be monitored. Likely, this system will wait until weekend and as it nears the Yucatan be able to organize itself. The second wave has a high chance of development and could be an issue for the Greater Antilles by the weekend and the East Coast next week. A third wave is just moving off western Africa and may try to get its act together through early next week. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty that will need to be monitored through the next several days; at this point, there is nothing to worry about, but let’s keep a watchful eye on both systems.
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
August 18, 2020
A Bit Warmer Tuesday; Tolerable Humidity Remains
TUESDAY: Another front will be poised to sneak into the region from the north – though, ahead of it, expect temperatures will be a bit warmer during the afternoon hours – into the lower and middle 90s, though humidity levels will remain in check. A stray shower or storm may flare up north of I-20 during the afternoon hours. In the wake of the front, expect another drop in humidity as lows drop into the 60s and lower 70s.
WEDNESDAY: The second front will slow down and begin to stall closer to the Mississippi Gulf Coast. This may spark the chance for a few showers and storms to bubble up near the front amid a mix of sun and clouds. Highs will top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s; lows dropping to the 60s to near 70.
EXTENDED FORECAST: The stalled front to our south will keep opportunities for rain present into the latter part of the week. Gradually, humidity level and temperatures will creep back upward into the latter half of the week and into the weekend. Expect highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s; lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
TROPICS: Several other waves pushing off West Africa and through the main development region could try to gain strength and organization over the next few days. The lead wave will move into the Caribbean and will need to be monitored. The second wave has a high chance of development and could be an issue for the Greater Antilles by the weekend and the East Coast next week. Still a fair amount of uncertainty that will need to be monitored through the next several days.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
August 17, 2020
Seasonably Hot, Tolerably Humid
MONDAY: A weak front will be south of the state, ushering in a push of drier air across central Mississippi to start off the new work week. Expect a lot of sunshine with highs, mainly, in the lower 90s. With the drier air and clear skies, lows will drop into the 60s to lower 70s overnight.
TUESDAY: Another front will be poised to sneak into the region from the north – though, ahead of it, expect temperatures will be a bit warmer during the afternoon hours – into the lower and middle 90s, though humidity levels will remain in check. A stray shower or storm may flare up north of I-20 during the afternoon hours. In the wake of the front, expect another drop in humidity.
EXTENDED FORECAST: Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s amid drier air filtering from the north with mostly to partly sunny skies. Gradually, humidity level and temperatures will creep back upward into the latter half of the week and into the weekend – yielding more clouds and opportunities for rain and storms to emerge again.
TROPICS: Josephine has fallen apart north of the Greater Antilles, while the remnants of Kyle’s circulation will continue to push away from North America but could become an issue for the British Isles by mid-week. Several other waves pushing off West Africa and through the main development region could try to gain strength and organization over the next few days, though the environment to start off the week remains hostile to development.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx