FRIDAY: A more typical, late July day is expected to round out the work week. Expect a mix of clouds and sun with a few pop-up storms possible as highs creep into the lower 90s. Humidity levels will remain elevated that could push ‘feels like’ numbers closer to 105°. Rain and storms may move in late Friday into early Saturday as a front slips into the region. A few of the storms could be strong and gusty in nature into the evening and overnight period. Lows will drop into the 70s.
WEEKEND PLANNER: Our cold front will gradually slip southward through Saturday. The whole day is not expected to be a wash – but be on the lookout for storms developing as they could have heavy rain, gusty winds and frequent lightning. Highs will top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s. The front will continue to trek southward, kicking off a few storms Sunday across south Mississippi – drier in other locations as drier air filters in.
EXTENDED FORECAST: Generally, a quiet period to start off August with near- to slightly below-average temperatures and lower humidity than what is typical of August in the wake of the front. A few pop-up storms could develop each day, but rain chances will remain lower through the first week of the month with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s; overnight in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
TROPICS: Hurricane Isaías still having remnant impacts with heavy rain bouts for the Dominican Republic and Haiti as the core moves near the Turks and Caicos, looking for an alleyway to cut north which could bring it very near to the south Florida coast and the Bahamas by Saturday. The likely turn will cause the storm to slow down as it turns north Saturday and Sunday, before accelerating – paralleling, even buffeting the eastern seaboard into early next week. Interests from Florida’s Atlantic Coast, through the Carolinas, mid-Atlantic and New England should take note that impacts could be felt, even if the storm’s core stays offshore.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
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July 2020
July 31, 2020
July 30, 2020
Steamy July Heat To Ease Into Early August
THURSDAY: A brief push of slightly drier air aloft will help to cap rain chances off Thursday. Expect morning clouds to gradually give way to sun break by the afternoon as temperatures warm into the lower 90s. Feels like temperatures will make a run for 105. A few storms could flare up amid the daytime heating, fading after sunset with lows in the 70s.
FRIDAY: A more typical, late July day is expected to round out the work week. Expect a mix of clouds and sun with a few pop-up storms possible as highs creep into the lower 90s. Humidity levels will remain elevated that could push ‘feels like’ numbers closer to 105°. Rain and storms may move in late Friday into early Saturday as a front slips into the region. Lows will drop into the 70s.
EXTENDED FORECAST: The weekend features and opportunity for showers and storms both Saturday and Sunday, though neither day will be a washout. A front will drop into the area Saturday – eventually, ushering in drier air through the first several days of August. With that, rain chances will taper off as highs sit near or just below-average to start the month off – heading into the start of next week.
TROPICS: In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Isaias will move across the Dominican Republic today – spreading rain and wind there, as well as Puerto Rico. The general path will take the storm near or over the Greater Antilles into the weekend, which could ultimately cause the system to remain weak as it moves closer to the US coastline by the weekend. However, the strength of the storm and path will ultimately be determined after the interaction with land into the weekend. For now, we’ll keep a watchful eye on this system.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
July 29, 2020
Summery Downpours Wednesday
WEDNESDAY: The upper disturbance will begin to lift farther north, away from central Mississippi, but in a last-ditch effort to hold its grip on the area, tropical moisture will spark another round of scattered storms as highs top out in the upper 80s to near 90. Rain chances will generally fade after sunset with lows in the 70s.
THURSDAY: A brief push of slightly drier air aloft will help to cap rain chances off Thursday. Expect morning clouds to gradually give way to sun break by the afternoon as temperatures warm into the lower 90s. A few storms, mainly NE of Jackson, could flare up amid the daytime heating.
EXTENDED FORECAST: Rain chances will remain capped for Friday as highs rebound into the lower 90s. Rain chances will click back up by the weekend with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 as a front approaches the region. The front, while making an approach, will likely not move through completely. Highs will still be near or just below normal through start of August.
TROPICS: In the Atlantic, ‘Potential Tropical Cyclone’ Nine moving past the Leeward Islands, striking them today with wind and rain. The system, as a whole, remains slightly disorganized, but is starting to get its act together. The general path will take the storm near or over the Greater Antilles through the latter half of the week, which could ultimately cause the system to remain weak as it moves closer to the US coastline by the weekend. As of now, the eastern Gulf of Mexico is in play - per the NHC 'cone of uncertainty' but the overall uncertain future of the strength after it emerges north of the Dominican Republic will ultimately tell the tale. At this point, we should a watchful eye on this.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
July 28, 2020
Unsettled Pattern Brings More Downpours Mid-Week
TUESDAY: Lather, rinse and repeat – expect another heightened chance for rain and storms amid variably cloudy skies. Highs will top out in the 80s. Storms that develop could feature heavy downpours and gusty winds. Most showers will taper after sunset, though another uptick may occur prior to sunrise as lows drop into the 70s.
WEDNESDAY: The upper disturbance will begin to lift farther north, away from central Mississippi, but in a last-ditch effort to hold its grip on the area, tropical moisture will spark another round of scattered to numerous storms as highs top out in the upper 80s. Rain chances will generally fade after sunset with lows in the 70s.
EXTENDED FORECAST: Rain chances will tend to fade as we transition to our next pattern through late week; generally, isolated to widely spaced Thursday and Friday as highs rebound into the lower 90s. Rain chances will click back up by the weekend with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 as a front approaches the region.
TROPICS: Deep in the Atlantic, 'Potential Tropical Cyclone' Nine could form into ‘Isaias’ this week. The track and strength of the storm will be dependent on the strength of an upper high over the Atlantic Ocean. The stronger the high, the farther south the storm will track; the weaker the high, the farther north the storm may trek. There is still a fair amount on uncertainty in regards to this and it's ultimate intensity. We'll continue to monitor this situation through the next few days.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
July 27, 2020
Unsettled Pattern Through Mid-Week
MONDAY: Keep your umbrellas handy to start off the new work week – expect scattered to numerous opportunities for showers and storms to return as the warm, muggy air mass in the wake of now, Tropical Depression Hanna, continues to move into Mexico. An upper disturbance will pivot over Mississippi, sparking the storm risk. Highs will, generally, top out in the 80s – a few spots tagging 90. Storms will fade after sunset as lows drop into the 70s.
TUESDAY: Lather, rinse and repeat – expect another heightened chance for rain and storms amid variably cloudy skies. Highs will top out in the 80s, with a few lower 90s sprinkled in. Most showers will taper after sunset, though another uptick may occur prior to sunrise as lows drop into the 70s.
EXTENDED FORECAST: Rain chances will remain elevated into Wednesday as the upper disturbance continues to lift northward. Rain chances will tend to fade as we transition to our next pattern through late week; generally, isolated to widely spaced Thursday and Friday as highs rebound into the lower 90s. Rain chances will click back up by the weekend with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.
TROPICS: Hanna will continue to trek inland over northern Mexico, dropping copious amounts of rain through mid-week. In the Gulf and Caribbean, the pattern will stay quiet to keep development at a minimum. Farther in the Atlantic, our next wave could form into ‘Isaias’ this week. The track and strength of the storm will be dependent on the strength of an upper high over the Atlantic Ocean. We’ll monitor its development over the next few days.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
July 24, 2020
Tropical Downpours Possible Friday, Saturday
FRIDAY: Tropical Storm Hanna will continue its trek westward toward southeast Texas – meanwhile, in its wake, still spiraling in occasional tropical bands that could result in squally weather at times, rotating over the region. Underneath one of these bands, expect heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds of 30-40 mph. Highs will top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Storms fade after sunset as lows drop into the 70s.
WEEKEND PLANNER: As the weekend approaches, waves of rain will still be possible in the wake of the TS Hanna pushes westward toward Texas. Opportunities for rain will remain highest south of I-20. Expect highs to be generally in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Rain chances may drop off slightly Sunday as are in transition in our weather patterns - highs topping out in the lower 90s.
EXTENDED FORECAST: The upper ridge that has acted as a bubble over the region the past two weeks will begin to break down and move away. Expect temperatures to fall back in line with late July standards and a general increase in rain chances on a daily basis – amid partly sunny to variably cloudy skies and muggy, Gulf air hanging over the region. Highs will top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
TROPICS: Close to home, TS Hanna will continue to trek westward toward the Coastal Bend of Texas – still spreading waves of tropical downpours across the Gulf States. The storm may strengthen a bit before moving onshore Saturday. Deeper in the Atlantic, Gonzalo continues to move toward the Windward Islands. While weakening in the Caribbean is expected - if it can overcome the dry air and wind shear, we’ll need to monitor its progression into next week as the southern Gulf may be in play. This being said, it’s still too early to make that assumption. Behind Gonzalo, yet, another wave coming off Africa, may have a chance at development into next week as the deep tropics come alive.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
July 23, 2020
Heat Slowly Eases; Storm Risk Increases
THURSDAY: An easterly push of wind will bring in slightly lower humidity for parts of the day. Expect mostly to partly sunny skies with a chance for storms increasing through the latter half of the day. This, as a tendril of moisture, spirals in from south to north, in association with TD #8 to our south. Highs will top out in the 90s again, while feels like numbers will crest between 100-105.
FRIDAY: TD #8 will continue its trek westward toward southeast Texas – meanwhile, in its wake, still spiraling in occasional tropical bands that could result in squally weather at times. Areas, mainly south of I-20, run the highest risk of being impacted by one of these squalls. In these areas, highs will top out in the upper 80s; elsewhere, lower 90s.
EXTENDED FORECAST: As the weekend approaches, waves of rain will still be possible in the wake of the TD #8 pushes westward toward Texas. Opportunities for rain will remain highest south of I-20. Expect highs to be generally in the lower 90s, though spots seeing more rain may remain in the upper 80s for highs. The upper ridge, that has acted as a bubble, over the region will begin to break down - offering up better chances for rain and storms by next week.
TROPICS: Close to home, TD #8 will continue to trek westward toward the Coastal Bend of Texas – still spreading waves of tropical downpours across the Gulf States. The storm may strengthen to become a tropical storm before moving farther west. Deeper in the Atlantic, Gonzalo, now forecast to become a hurricane today, will continue to move toward the Windward Islands. While weakening in the Caribbean is expected - if it can overcome the dry air and wind shear, we’ll need to monitor its progression into next week as the southern Gulf may be in play. This being said, it’s still too early to make that assumption.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
July 22, 2020
Relentless July Heat, Humidity Continues; Eyes on the Tropics
WEDNESDAY: Expect a mix of sunshine and clouds with a chance for a few showers and storms by the afternoon hours. Highs, again, will top out in the 90s – ‘feels like’ temperatures in the lower 100s. Storms will, again, fade, after sunset with lows in the 70s.
THURSDAY: An easterly push of wind will bring in slightly lower humidity for parts of the day. Expect mostly to partly sunny skies with a chance for storms increasing through the latter half of the day. This, as a tendril of moisture, spirals in from south to north, in association with the passing tropical wave to our south. Highs will top out in the 90s again, while feels like numbers will crest between 100-105.
EXTENDED FORECAST: High pressure will continue to hang out over the southeast US, keeping temperatures above average and rain chances, generally, low. Expect highs in the lower to middle 90s; overnights in the 70s. The tropical wave will continue to track westward toward the Coastal Bend of Texas. This could bring an uptick in rain chances for areas south of I-20. At this point, we don’t anticipate any major impacts locally, but we’ll keep a watchful eye over the system this week. Also, deeper in the Atlantic, TS Gonzalo has formed in the Main Development Region between the Cape Verde and Windward islands will continue to trek westward toward the Caribbean through the weekend. Increasing wind shear by the weekend over this area may limit the storm from strengthening. While, this isn’t something of immediate impact, we’ll be keeping an eye on it, as well.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
July 21, 2020
Summer Doldrums Roll On; Eyes on the Tropics
TUESDAY: The Summer doldrums continue - expect more of the same as we head into your Tuesday with a mix of sun and clouds amid an opportunity for a few cooling showers or storms to bubble up to stymie the heat. Expect highs in the middle 90s amid ‘feels like’ temperatures pushing 105. Storms will gradually taper after sunset as lows drop into the 70s.
WEDNESDAY: Lather, rinse and repeat – expect a mix of sunshine and clouds with a chance for a few showers and storms by the afternoon hours. Highs, again, will top out in the 90s – ‘feels like’ temperatures in the lower 100s. Storms will, again, fade, after sunset with lows in the 70s.
EXTENDED FORECAST: High pressure will continue to hang out over the southeast US, keeping temperatures above average and rain chances, generally, low. Expect highs in the lower to middle 90s; overnights in the 70s. By the latter part of the week, an area of low pressure will enter the Gulf of Mexico, tracking westward toward the Coastal Bend of Texas. This could bring an uptick in rain chances for areas south of I-20. At this point, we don’t anticipate any major impacts locally, but we’ll keep a watchful eye over the system this week. Yet another system is tracking through the Main Development Region between the Cape Verde and Windward islands. More than likely, this system will beat the other one to the punch in numbering and naming convention, though will not have an local impact, as of now.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
July 20, 2020
Summer Doldrums Take Hold Through Late July
MONDAY: Heading back to work Monday will feature, yet another, steamy July weather setup. Expect a mix of sun and clouds as temperatures work their way back into the middle 90s again. Factor in the humidity levels, feels like temperatures will crest close to 105. A cooling storm or two is possible for some; fading after sunset with lows in the 70s.
TUESDAY: Lather, rinse and repeat – expect more of the same as we head into your Tuesday with a mix of sun and clouds amid an opportunity for a cooling shower or storm to bubble up stymie the heat. Expect highs in the middle 90s amid ‘feels like’ temperatures pushing 105.
EXTENDED FORECAST: High pressure will continue to hang out over the southeast US, keeping temperatures above average and rain chances, generally, low. Expect highs in the lower to middle 90s; overnights in the 70s. By the middle to latter part of the week, an area of low pressure will enter the Gulf of Mexico, tracking westward toward the Coastal Bend of Texas. This could bring an uptick in rain chances for areas south of I-20. At this point, we don’t anticipate any major impacts locally, but we’ll keep a watchful eye over the system this week.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx