We're wrapping up the month of April this week, but it seems like we're diving headlong into summertime weather! We've got a lot of warmth and humidity ahead of us, along with a few nuisance showers and thunderstorms during our weekdays.
On the map we have a stationary front over the Midwest and a cold front trailing through the Great Plains. Here in Mississippi, we'll be in the warm sector of this storm system today and for the next several days. With southerly flowing winds coming off of the Gulf of Mexico, moisture is really going to ramp up. Dew point temperatures are forecast to stay in the upper 50s and low 60s today, which means it will be feeling humid. By the middle and end of the week the dew points will be in the mid and upper 60s, which will be downright muggy.
There aren't many mechanisms nearby that will help to induce rain and storms- in fact, we actually have a bit of gentle ridging going on over us in the upper atmosphere. Ridging tends to prevent rain from developing.
This ridging looks to be in place through the first few days of the work week.That said, I'm still including a slight chance for rain and storms in central Mississippi beginning on Tuesday. We'll be coming close to our convective temperature each day, which is the temperature we would need to warm to in order for thunderstorms to develop without any other "trigger" present.
By Wednesday evening, the cold front gets closer to us and provides more of a trigger for thunderstorm development. With all of the warmth and moisture already in place, the atmosphere will be primed for some thunderstorm activity. We'll be keeping an eye on storm development during that time. As of now it looks like severe weather is a possibility with the greatest risk area in the Delta.
Wednesday Evening Sea Level Pressure and Precipitation:
It doesn't look like the cold front is going to pass all the way through the area and clear us. Instead, it will likely stall out along the Hwy 82 corridor in northern MS on Thursday. That's going to keep our temperatures warm in the mid and upper 80s on both Thursday and Friday with showers and storms still in the forecast.
The takeaway? Expect a lot of heat and humidity this week. While showers and storms aren't ruled out for the first couple of days during the work week, the pattern certainly gets stormier for Wednesday. Stay tuned for updates!