After a pleasant week, we turn warmer and more humid over the weekend... Most spots fell into the upper 50s and low 60s again last night, but humidity levels and temperatures are rising; highs reached the low and middle 90s this afternoon. This trend continues into the weekend with very little opportunity for rain.
Tropical Storm Erika is centered along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic (as of 4pm Friday), and remains unorganized with sustained winds at 50 mph. As it stands now, Erika likely has 3 options: First, it is very possible the storm will weaken over the weekend due to interaction with the Caribbean Islands, and diminish to nothing more than a remnant low.
The second scenario is more interesting: To this point, the steering currents associated with the Bermuda High are not turning Erika northwest as previously expected; as of this afternoon, movement is due west.
The forecast models simply do not have a solid grip on this system, which is the reason why the forecast track has varied over previous days.
If this current westward track continues, and Erika remains at least partially over the warm waters as it progresses through the Caribbean, there is the potential it could reach the Gulf of Mexico early next week. This scenario is less likely than the previous, but is certainly a possibility.
The third scenario: Erika finally makes the northwest turn and moves over Cuba this weekend, then the Florida Peninsula early next week as either a depression or weak tropical storm.
Unfortunately, there are more questions than answers as of now; we'll keep you posted throughout the weekend as Erika evolves.