MS News Now, First Alert Weather Blog

Julia Weiden's First Alert Tuesday Forecast

You know what the best thing about Tuesday is? It's no longer Monday! This particular Tuesday though will feature much more active weather than what we dealt with at the start of the work week. Here are the details:

AM Commute: Areas of rain and thunder are mainly north of I-20 as the day starts off. When heading off to work today, prep for rain and storms to be around later on, as this area of activity will shift southward as the day progresses. Otherwise, morning temperatures will be in the 70s.

Afternoon: By midday, rain and thunder will begin overspreading central Mississippi. Heavy rain is likely with storms, as is frequent lightning. Some storms will have strong winds and possibly some hail. This will be become more widespread throughout the afternoon and will be present during the PM drive! Go safely.

Up To the Weekend: Storms end tonight after sunset and the night is partly cloudy with lows in the low 70s. Showers and storms will be isolated/spotty in nature from the middle of the week through the holiday weekend, with the greater threat for rain and storms farther to the north each day. Highs will consistently be in the low 90s.

Julia Weiden's Saturday Forecast

You made it to the weekend! Here's everything you need to know about today's forecast.

Our weather pattern is changing as a cold front passes through the state today, with rain and storms leading the charge. During the morning hours the rain and thunder activity is mainly north of I-20 with isolated exceptions. Through the afternoon the rain and thunder drifts southward. The majority of the action winds down during the evening with a few showers lingering in the the Highway 84 to Highway 98 region.

What you should expect today is occasional bouts of rain that may cause you to take your outdoor plans back inside. Heavy downpours are likely, as are thunder and lightning. Strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon, mostly south of I-20 by that point. Otherwise, the high today will be in the mid 80s with a muggy feel.

Conditions change for Sunday as most are much drier with a good bit of sunshine. The high will be in the upper 80s and close to low 90s, but humidity levels will be tolerable.

Storms Increasing

Scattered storms continue this afternoon, producing heavy downpours, gusty wind, and frequent lightning. While the severe threat is minimal, we can't rule out the possibility for isolated cases of damaging straight line wind...

Due to the increase in clouds and rain, temperatures are holding in the 80s, which is below average for late June.

Storms continue at times during the day Saturday in advance of a cold front. While it won't rain constantly, be prepared for periods of rain throughout the day. In the wake of the front, sunshine returns Sunday as slightly cooler and drier air arrives, which will decrease humidity levels a bit.

Longer term, a typical summer pattern through next week with highs in the low 90s along with the potential for hit and miss afternoon storms on a daily basis.

Be sure to join us this evening and tonight on WLBT and Fox 40 for the latest forecast updates! You can also find me on social media: Facebook and Twitter

Have a great weekend!

Michael Haynes

Julia Weiden's Friday Forecast

Good morning! If you're looking forward to the weekend, here's everything you need to know regarding your outdoor plans. Let's start with what's happening today.

Friday:  For the last drive in to work of the work week, the weather conditions shouldn't hinder you. Wake-up temperatures are in the 70s and there's certainly a humid feel, but no showers are on the map as we start the day.

We're hot again today, but not quite as hot as the past few days. We likely will top out near 92 for an afternoon high, with a "feels like" temperature slightly above that in the mid and high 90s.

Rain and thunderstorms will be spotty to scattered during the afternoon, with the greatest chance for severe storms north of I-20. That said, we can't rule out isolated severe storms anywhere on the map, so be prepared today. The biggest issues will be soaking downpours, gusty winds, and possibly even some hail. Storm activity will mostly quiet down during the overnight.

Saturday & Sunday: If you're looking to spend some time outside, Sunday looks like it will be the better day. That's because a cold front will be passing through on Saturday, which will ignite scattered rain and thunder action that will move from north to south during the day. By suppertime hours the storms will likely be near the highway 84 corridor. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid and high 80s. Fortunately, dry air moves in very quickly and gives us a pretty nice day on Sunday with highs in the mid and high 80s and lots of sunshine. The humidity will be lower as well!

What's The Heat Index?

 

Over the past week or so, the First Alert Weather Team has been pretty focused on the temperatures, specifically how hot they are. During the majority of the year, we can look at the thermometer and get a fairly accurate description of what it feels like outside. However, now that we're into the first days of summer and the humidity has settled in, we have to give focus to a second temperature: the heat index, or "feels like" temperature.

So what exactly is the heat index? Simply put, it's the temperature that takes humidity into account. The idea here is that when it's hot out we start to sweat, and that sweat evaporates off of our skin to cool us off. However, when the air is already saturated with water vapor (which we perceive as humidity) the sweat evaporates more slowly. Slower sweat evaporation isn't as effective as cooling us off, thus it winds up feeling hotter with more humidity.

At least, that's the easy explanation. It actually gets quite a bit more complicated than that. For one thing, every person is different, and therefore every person perceives temperature slightly differently. In order to come up with an equation to calculate the heat index, a few assumptions need to be made. Here are a few of them:

• You are 5'7" tall and weigh 147 lbs
• You are wearing long trousers and a short sleeve shirt
• Your body temperature is normal (98.6°) and you aren't running a fever
• You are walking outside at a rate of 3.1 mph
• You are sweating uniformly all across your body, and it is not dripping off of you
• The wind is blowing at around 6 mph

Those are a lot of assumptions to make, and as a result, the equation for calculating the heat index could never truly be accurate because it will never be customized for each and every individual! That's important to note, because some people could become more susceptible to heat related illnesses as a result. On top of that, the heat index equation isn't a "perfect" equation. It was derived from a regression based on a mathematical model, and therefore contains some flaws.

The long and short of it here is that regardless of the assumptions, it's hot outside! We want you to take precaution and stay safe. The best thing you can do in this weather is to avoid going outdoors and stay inside in the air conditioning. If you do have to go outside, drink plenty of water and wear loose fitting, light colored clothing. Remember, children and senior citizens are more susceptible to the nasty effects of heat, and pets need to keep cool too!

For the math nerds out there who have been wondering what the heat index equation actually looks like, here it is:

HI = -42.379 + 2.04901523T + 10.14333127R - 0.22475541TR - 6.83783x10-3T 2 - 5.481717x10-2R 2 + 1.22874x10-3T 2R + 8.5282x10-4TR2 - 1.99x10-6T 2R 2

Where R = the relative humidity, and T = the temperature. 

Want to read more about the heat index? Check out the links I used as references for this blog! In the meantime, keep cool.

Meteorologist Julia Weiden

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/heatindex_equation.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/ffc/pdf/ta_htindx.PDF
http://www.climateknowledge.org/heat_waves/Doc1006_Steadman_Heat_Stress_Index_JApplMet_1979.pdf

Summer Steam!

Our heat increases over the coming days as spring ends and summer officially begins... Showers are increasing slightly this afternoon as remnants of Bill pass north of the state. Still, the chance for a passing shower at any given location is low, and any rain that does fall will be brief.  Once again, temperatures are hot this afternoon; most spots are in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, which is average for mid-June. 

Summer officially begins Sunday and it will certainly feel like it; in fact, it will fee more like late July. Highs reach the low to middle 90s both Saturday and Sunday with heat index values near 100 degrees. Otherwise, rain will be at a minimum this weekend, although we can't completely rule out a few widely spaced afternoon showers or storms.

Heat levels continue to rise next week as temperatures soar well into the middle 90s; and due to high humidity levels, heat indices will reach the 105+ degree range by Tuesday and Wednesday. Bottom line, get ready for some serious Mississippi heat!

Be sure to join us this evening and tonight on WLBT and Fox 40 for the latest forecast updates! You can also find me on social media: Facebook and Twitter

Have a great weekend!     

Michael Haynes

Checking The Tropics

Hurricane season officially began June 1st for the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico, but the National Hurricane Center predicted it will likely be a tame one. Still, that hasn't stopped us from watching to see what is going on in the Gulf! As of now we're keeping an eye on a disturbance that has an 80% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone (read: become a named storm) over the next couple of days. 

Of course, the first question is: "Will it have any impact on Mississippi?" The answer is highly likely that no, it will not have much of an impact on our area. This goes for whether or not the system gains a name.

The reason we won't see much action is because there's high pressure building in westward from the East Coast. Typically referred to as a "Bermuda High," this type of high pressure is semi-permanent throughout the summer months. Air over the ocean is typically cooler than the air over the land in the summer, allowing for sinking air which leads to high pressure roughly near Bermuda. In this case, that high pressure is back-building over the southeastern United States and is acting sort of like a shield for our area. 

 

So it does appear that the area of low pressure, whether or not it reaches tropical status, will divert to the west and mainly impact eastern Texas and possibly western Louisiana. The biggest issue will be heavy rain in coastal areas and some gusty winds. Here's an estimate of the amount of rainfall from now until early Wednesday morning, showing a bulls-eye of over 6" rain:

 

Notice the amount of rain expected for Mississippi in that time frame? It's barely anything. So even though there's a potentially tropical system in the Gulf, we likely won't have to deal with its impacts. We'll continue to keep an eye on it!

Meteorologist Julia Weiden

Weekend Heat & Humidity

Another round of scattered storms this afternoon. It is not raining everywhere or constantly, but storms are more widespread compared to recent days...

Any storm that develops through early evening will be capable of producing gusty straight line wind, small hail, heavy rain, and frequent lightning, then will quickly weaken after sunset. For the remainder of the night, partly cloudy, warm, and muggy with morning lows in the lower 70s.

The heat and humidity continue over the weekend; expect a mix of sun and clouds both days with highs in the 88 to 92 degree range, and a scattering of afternoon showers and storms. Although the number of storms will decrease compared to today. Also, due to high humidity levels, heat index values will run in the middle to upper 90s. 

Be sure to join us this evening and tonight on WLBT and Fox 40 for the latest forecast updates! You can also find me on social media: Facebook and Twitter

Have a great weekend!      

Michael Haynes

 

Thursday Afternoon Update

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are developing this afternoon; as of 2PM the better coverage is located in South and East Mississippi...

While it will not rain/storm everywhere, any given location could get wet at any point. As is typically the case during the summer months, any storm that develops will be capable of producing gusty straight line and downpours; since they moved very little, some flash flooding is possible where storms do develop... And of course, frequent cloud to ground lightning is always a concern this time of year.

Michael Haynes

Scattered Storms; Hot & Steamy

Scattered storms are developing again this afternoon... As of 1:45pm, a strong storm producing heavy rain, gusty wind, and frequent lightning is moving through Hinds Co, approaching Clinton and the I-220 corridor from the NW... Here's a radar image, and a shot from our Jackson Skycam looking back into the storm: 

 

We're technically still in the final stretch of spring, but it feels more like summer. Over the coming days, expect afternoon highs in the upper 80s and low 90s with morning lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. Also, the heat index will be a factor each day, making it feel like middle to upper 90s. The only  heat relief will come in the form of scattered afternoon showers and storms, but of course that relief will be very brief. 

Be sure to join us on WLBT at Fox 40 this evening for a full forecast update!

Michael Haynes