After a very mild weekend, the week is beginning wet and stormy... The heaviest storms have been confined to extreme South Mississippi and especially the Gulf Coast in Louisiana this morning. Fortunately, all Mississippi counties have been cleared from the tornado watch...
The rain will taper off to showers this afternoon, but the clouds will hang tough, and with a cooler air mass in place temperatures will hold in the upper 60s and low 70s, which is a good 15 to 20 degrees lower than yesterday!
Another round of storms arrives late tonight and early tomorrow morning (Tuesday) as a warm front heads north in advance of a strong upper level system; heavy rain with lightning, and some small hail will increase in coverage throughout the morning. Some strong storms develop in South Mississippi as warmer, moist, unstable air returns; the storms will be capable of producing damaging straight line wind, large hail, and even a few tornadoes. Of course timing and the exact tack of the system will determine where the greatest severe risk will occur, but as of now, the area along the Highway 84 corridor into Southeast Mississippi stands the best chance due to deeper moisture levels and warm air. A well defined boundary will set-up across the state separating the warm, unstable conditions from cooler, stable air. Along I-20, highs will run the 60s with 50s in the Delta, while South Mississippi soars into the 70s and low 80s.
The rain decreases in coverage Wednesday, followed by beautiful weather for the second half of the week, featuring mild, pleasant days and clear, cool nights.
Showers and a few storms continue in spots this afternoon; while it will not rain everywhere or constantly, expect a passing shower at any point along with some rumbles of thunder.
Temperatures reach the middle to upper upper 70s in Central Mississippi and upper 70s and low 80s in South Mississippi.
Widespread rain and stronger storms arrive tomorrow afternoon and evening, featuring the threat for damaging straight line wind, large hail, and some flash flooding. Once again, the tornado threat is limited, but given the typical nature of April weather in Mississippi, we can't complete rule out the possibility. The coverage of rain/storms decreases late Friday night and early Saturday, followed by a very warm weekend with highs well into the 80s.
Temperatures are running below average today as cooler and drier air blows in behind a cold front. Most spots are holding in the upper 60s to near 70 as of 1:30; our average high is 77. Clouds have been slow to move out so far today, but as drier air continues moving in, we become mostly clear this evening; and with a clearing sky and decreasing wind, temperatures will drop quickly tonight with morning lows in the middle and upper 40s.
A beautiful day ahead for Tuesday: Lots of sunshine, low humidity, and a comfortable south breeze. Afternoon highs return to the middle and upper 70s, and combined with low humidity levels, it will feel awfully nice!
The pattern becomes unsettled again for the second half of this week, featuring two rounds of showers and storms; the first round arrives Wednesday afternoon/evening, then another on Friday. While exact timing is still in question, some strong storms are possible, including the potential for gusty straight line wind, hail, and heavy downpours. We'll be able to resolve the fine details as the week continues.
The unsettled pattern continues... Some sun breaking through today in isolated spots, but overall clouds are hanging tough. Temperatures reach the upper 70s this afternoon; a few additional showers or storms are possible, but the coverage is less compared to the previous two days. As of noon, the primary area of showers is located along and north of I-20...
More rain and storms arrive Saturday, and just as we've dealt with throughout this week, any storm that develops will be capable of producing gusty wind, hail, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning. The coverage decreases Saturday night and Sunday, although a few additional storms are certainly possible, especially Sunday afternoon into the night as a cold front moves across that state. And with temperatures in the 80s during the afternoon, any storm that develops could become strong to severe.
Once the front moves out, dry and very pleasant arrives for the beginning of next week.
Another round of strong to severe storms this afternoon. A severe thunderstorm warning continues until 3:30 for Sharkey County; also, Issaquena and Sharkey Counties are under a flash flood warning until 5:45pm. Any storm that develops today will be capable of producing gusty wind, large hail, and heavy rain...
And as we've dealt with for much of this week, expect periods of rain along with storms in the days ahead; once again, gusty straight line wind, hail, and heavy rain are the primary threats. The pattern remains wet, mild, and muggy through Saturday; we are expecting the coverage of rain to decrease by Saturday evening, but still can't rule out a few showers during the day Sunday.
The national weather service has confirmed tornado damage in Hinds County, just northwest of Terry from a cell that moved through Monday evening. A warning was not issued because the velocity signature was very weak. In fact, this cell did not even produce lightning. Fortunately, this was a very isolated/random event, but it's also a reminder that it is April in Mississippi and the unexpected does happen from time to time...
Here's the storm survey summary from the National Weather Service in Jackson...
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1221 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015 ...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR HINDS COUNTY TORNADO EVENT... RATING: EF-0 ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 85 MPH PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 4.06 MILES PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 25 YARDS FATALITIES: 0 INJURIES: 0 START DATE: APR 13 2015 START TIME: 710 PM CDT START LOCATION: 5 NW TERRY START LAT/LON: 32.1494/-90.3571 END DATE: APR 13 2015 END TIME: 726 PM CDT END LOCATION: 5 N TERRY END_LAT/LON: 32.1784/-90.2966 SURVEY_SUMMARY: THE TORNADO BEGIN NEAR LEBANON PINEGROVE RD WHERE IT UPROOTED A LARGE TREE. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST WHERE IT SNAPPED A UTILITY POLE AND THEN ENDED IN THE RIDGELEA COMMUNITY OFF OF GARY ROAD WHERE A FEW TREES WERE UPROOTED AND THERE WAS ALSO MINOR FENCE AND ROOF DAMAGE.
A mild, muggy, and wet week ahead... A band of rain along with a few storms is moving across the state today:
The coverage of rain will decrease from southwest to northeast throughout the afternoon, leaving us with spotty showers this evening. Despite the rain and clouds, temperatures are running very close to average, in the middle 70s.
Mostly cloudy tonight; a few showers are possible, but nothing widespread. And with lots of moisture in place, areas of fog develop tomorrow morning. Otherwise, mild with lows in the middle 60s.
Thanks to an unsettled flow from the west and abundant Gulf moisture, rain and storms will continue on a daily basis through the end of this week. In fact, rain totals of 3 to 5 inches, on average, are likely through Friday.
Still lots of questions for the weekend, but the latest data suggests the coverage of rain will decrease by Saturday and Sunday as slightly cooler and drier air arrives. However, it's simply too early to know for sure. We'll keep you posted in the coming days!
Storms ending in South Mississippi this afternoon as the cold front heads toward the Gulf Coast. Behind the front, gradual clearing will continue from north to south as slightly cooler and drier air arrives. For tonight, mostly clear and cooler with morning lows in the middle to upper 50s, which is still several degrees above average for early to mid April.
The first half of the weekend looks great! Sunshine returns Saturday, and very pleasant with highs in the upper 70s along with a refreshing northeast breeze and lower humidity. A few showers are possible in extreme South Mississippi by late afternoon, but most of us remain dry.
The news is not so good for Sunday: Showers (along with a few storms) increase in coverage throughout the day; while we're not expecting a completely wash-out, expect periods of rain with rumbles of thunder.
The pattern remains unsettled into next week, featuring off and on rain/storms on a daily basis.
Have a great weekend!
TODAY: Our unseasonably warm and muggy stretch continues!... Once again, we are running a good 10 degrees above average with temperatures in the low to middle 80s. Other than a few spotty showers, most spots remain dry through the afternoon.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY: Storms become more widespread later tonight over the Northern half of Mississippi in advance of a cold front. The line of storms will reach the Natchez Trace Parkway early tomorrow morning between 4AM and 7AM, and South Mississippi by mid-morning. The severe threat is low in Central and South Mississippi, although we can't completely rule out gusty straight line wind and large hail that could reach severe limits. Bottom line, we are not expecting a significant severe weather event.
WEEKEND: The front stalls near Highway 98/South Mississippi this weekend, serving as a focal point for scattered showers and a few storms. Due to the location of the front, points south of Highway 84 will have a 50/50 shot at catching a passing shower Saturday afternoon, then showers along with a few storms become more widespread Sunday across Central and South Mississippi. Otherwise, temperatures remain above average with highs near 80 degrees Saturday, and low 80s Sunday.