The rain/snow line is progressing southeast; as of 2pm, points along and northwest of a line from near Tallulah to Yazoo City to Kosciusko have changed over (or are in the process of changing to) all snow. This line will move southeast throughout the afternoon... No real change in our thinking from this morning; the greatest accumulation will occur near the Highway 82 corridor where several inches are likely..
First of all, I want to stress that this will be a long day and conditions will vary depending on your location; in other words, this is NOT "a one forecast fits all" kind of day. As of 7:00 this morning, precipitation is moving in from the west; the good news is, at least temporarily the air just off the surface is very warm and as the light rain, freezing rain, and sleet falls, some of the warm air is working down the surface. If you've noticed, temperatures warmed a couple degrees after the precip began. Jackson is slightly above freezing as of 7AM, but Vicksburg is at 32 degrees with freezing rain and sleet.
In the short term, (through mid-morning), the focus will be icing due to freezing rain and sleet; the greatest potential for widespread icing should remain along and northwest of the Natchez Trace Parkway. By late morning and early afternoon, a cold upper level low will move in from our west; as it moves across the state, precipitation will change to all snow north of I-20, and a wintry mix between I-20 to potentially as far south as Highway 84. The greatest accumulation will occur over the northern half of Mississippi, but these systems have a tendency to deliver some surprises, which is why this is a situation we'll have to take hour by hour. For now, our accumulation forecast from yesterday still looks good, so we'll roll with it and make necessary changes as the day unfolds...
We'll keep you posted throughout the day, on air and online.
Our big dose of winter continues!.... As of 1PM, a band of light freezing drizzle is falling in Southwest Mississippi along the Highway 84 corridor where temperatures are near 30 degrees; widespread travel problems are not expected but a few slick spots are certainly possible. Temperatures warm above freezing this afternoon, which will help road conditions, but we remain cold as highs struggle to reach the upper 30s.
Our focus is now turning to the next round of winter weather... A dynamic upper level low will swing across the state tomorrow (Wednesday) delivering snow with the potential for significant accumulation in parts of state. Before we dive into the details, please keep in mind that forecasting snow in the deep south is very tricky and even at this late hour the fine details can (and likely will) change.
Here we go... as of now (1pm as I post this), we're expecting light precipitation to arrive by sunrise tomorrow; once again, temperatures will be close to freezing along the I-20 corridor where light freezing rain and sleet will likely create some slick spots by mid-morning. Precipitation becomes more widespread throughout the day, delivering rain to South Mississippi and snow and sleet along and north of I-20...
Along the I-20 corridor, up to 1 inch is possible with the potential for 1 to 3 inches to the north. Typically, in this type of set-up a very narrow band of heavy snow develops that can produce impressive accumulation amounts; however, skill in forecasting where that band will occur is low. The precipitation ends tomorrow evening but roads will be hazardous throughout the night.
This is a rapidly changing weather situation, so please stay with us for the latest information. We'll have live updates during our newscasts this evening, tonight, and throughout the day tomorrow. You can also find me on social media: Facebook and Twitter
A wild weather week ahead including the potential for two rounds of winter weather... We're expecting round one this afternoon and tonight. Moisture is increasing from our west in North Louisiana where a wintry mix falling as of late morning. As shallow, arctic air continues slip into Central and South Mississippi we're expecting freezing rain to arrive this afternoon and evening; while this will not be a crippling ice storm, road conditions will deteriorate as roads become icy. The more widespread icing will occur along and north of I-20 with the potential for more than 1 quarter of an inch through Tuesday morning, which could be enough to cause some power outages late tonight. For south Mississippi, amounts will be lighter, but icing on bridges and overpasses will be possible as far south as the Highway 98 corridor. The precipitation ends around mid-morning and as temperatures warm above freezing, travel conditions will improve by late morning and early afternoon.
A second system arrives Wednesday morning; still some uncertainty regarding location and amounts, but confidence is high that measurable snow will fall in parts of the state. As of now, the area along and north of I-20 into North Mississippi is the mostly likely location for significant accumulation with the potential for 1 to 3 inches between I-20 and Highway 82 and more than 4 inches farther north.
This is the latest NAM model, valid noon Wednesday featuring wintry mix along I-20 and snow to the north:
Keep in mind, locations, timing, and amounts can certainly change and this is not written in stone; bottom line, we're in for a very interesting 48 hours, so hang tight.
After a round of freezing drizzle/light freezing rain this morning, a brief warming is beginning. Despite clouds and a few showers, temperatures reach the low and middle 50s today, which is still below average but significantly warmer than the past several days. And with a strong southerly wind tonight, you'll notice a dramatic difference in temperatures as morning lows hold in the low 50s. Otherwise, cloudy along with a few showers.
The warming trend continues tomorrow with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Due to abundant moisture and an unsettled pattern, a passing shower is possible at any time during the day, then a line of storms moves through Saturday evening and night in advance of a cold front; while we're not expecting widespread severe weather, a few storms could produce damaging straight line wind.
Behind the front, colder air begins slipping in Sunday, knocking temperatures down to the 40s and low 50s by afternoon. More interesting changes for early next week; once again, some light freezing rain is a possibility Monday as another blast of cold air arrives. At this point, moisture looks limited, but certainly something to watch over the weekend.
Longer term, the pattern remains cool through the end of February.
Some interesting weather changes ahead... After a cold morning, afternoon temperatures are warming slowly due to increasing high clouds; most spots will end up in the upper 40s and low 50s. For tonight, partially cloudy and not as cold with morning lows in the 31 to 34 degree range. And right on cue with our "up and down" theme of the past couple weeks, mild, pleasant weather returns for Saturday/Valentine's Day. Thanks to a southwest breeze and lots of sunshine, afternoon temperatures reach the middle and upper 60s, which is above average.
As you can probably guess, more changes are ahead for Sunday and next week. A cold front arrives late Saturday, delivering seasonably cool air that will knock Sunday's highs down to the low/middle 50s. Clouds begin increasing Sunday evening and night in advance of s storm system that will bring rain and winter precipitation to the Deep South on Monday. The system moves into the state late Sunday night and early Monday morning; confidence is increasing that temperatures will be cold enough over the northern half of Mississippi for the precip to fall as Freezing rain and sleet that will likely cause roads to become icy, making travel difficult and dangerous. Widespread icing/travel problems are most likely within the area along and north of Highway 82 (north of a line from Greenville to Greenwood to Columbus), but embedded pockets of freezing rain and sleet within the primary rain band are certainly possible as far south as Vicksburg, Yazoo City, and Louisville. Along and south of I-20, simply a cold rain throughout the day Monday.
A second disturbance swings across the state Tuesday; if timing works out just right, the disturbance will phase-in with cold air and Gulf moisture, kicking off a brief round of light snow. At this stage, South Mississippi (south of I-20) has the best shot at seeing light snow due to higher moisture levels. Keep in mind, this is a complex forecast and there's still plenty of time for amounts, timing, and fine details to change. As always, we'll keep you posted
Our quick changing weather pattern continues with no end in sight.... After reaching the 60s and low 70s yesterday, we have turned cold again today in the wake of a cold front that moved through last night. Afternoon temperatures drop to the upper 40s and low 50s along with a chilly north breeze. Fortunately, we do have lots of sunshine, which certainly helps. With a clear sky and decreasing wind tonight, temperatures will fall very quickly; we go below freezing between 9pm and 11pm followed by 8 to 10 hours of sub freezing temperatures as morning lows plummet into the middle and upper 20s.
For Friday, slightly warmer but still chilly with highs in the low 50s under a good supply of sunshine. Saturday morning will begin cold with lows below freezing again, then a nice warmup throughout the day with afternoon temperatures in the middle 60s. Yet another front blows in here Saturday night, dropping Sunday's temperatures to the low and middle 50s. Otherwise clear and dry.
Turning briefly warmer and unsettled early next week; rain arrives Monday with the potential for a few storms in South Mississippi. As the rain ends, we're expecting some of the coldest air so far this winter to blow in here by Tuesday evening and Wednesday.
It will feel more like winter around here in the days ahead... Three cold fronts will impact us this week. Front #1 moved through Monday delivering seasonably cool air. Afternoon temperatures drop back into the 50s today, which is near average for mid-February, but much cooler than the spring-like weather we enjoyed over the weekend. Lows drop to the low to middle 30s tonight, followed by a brief warmup Wednesday as afternoon highs return to the 60s.
A shot of much colder air arrives late Wednesday night and Thursday as front #2 moves through; during the day Thursday, we struggle to reach the upper 40s and with an icy north breeze it will feel even colder. We remain cool Friday when morning lows fall into the 20s.
The coldest air of the week blows in here, beginning Saturday afternoon and evening as front #3 passes. As of now, we're expecting temperatures to hold in the lower 40s Sunday with lows in the 20s through Monday. Otherwise, dry through the weekend, so no chance for frozen precip. No doubt, the big story will be the cold.