MONDAY: Kicking off the new work and school week keeps a chance for a few showers and storms to flare up amid the remnant muggy air mass left behind by Nicholas. Expect morning clouds to give way to partly cloudy skies by the afternoon hours with highs in the middle to upper 80s. Showers and storms will tend to fade after sunset with lows in the 70s.
TUESDAY: A front will be on approach to the region – this will help to push highs to summery levels in the upper 80s and lower 90s – still with the muggy air in place. This will have ‘feels like’ temperatures cresting above 100. Scattered downpours will develop as the front moves toward the area through the afternoon and evening hours. Outside of the storm chances, expect skies to be partly sunny. A few of the storms could be strong and could linger through Tuesday night as the front sweeps eastward. Lows will fall into the 60s as drier air moves toward the area.
EXTENDED FORECAST: Behind the front, the first, true fall air mass will invade the region and hang around for a while. Barring any other hiccups, expect sunshine, low humidity and below-average temperature for the better part of end of the month. Expect highs through mid-week in the 70s, lows well into the 50s. Gradually, temperatures will rebound back to the 80s, lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
TALKIN’ TROPICS: As we continue through the peak weeks of tropical season, Peter and Rose remain on the board after Odette formed and fizzled quickly off the eastern US coast. Peter will start to curve more northward, angling toward Bermuda through the end of the week; Rose will also begin to turn northward through the week ahead – but neither is expected to impact land directly. The remnants of Odette could reform through mid-week in the northern Atlantic, but still will have no direct impact on land and another disturbance rolling off western Africa has a ‘medium’ chance for development through late week.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
September 20, 2021
September 17, 2021
Scattered Tropical Downpour Regime Continue; Fall Air Looms Mid-Next Week
FRIDAY: Still with a faint resemblance of a circulation to our west – a continued deep flow off the Gulf of Mexico amid warm, unstable air will help to kick up scattered to, at times, numerous downpours amid variably to mostly cloudy skies to round out the work week. Highs will still make their way into the lower to middle 80s. Downpours will have some staying power after sunset with lows in the 70s amid mostly cloudy skies.
WEEKEND PLANNER: Expect more of the same – the residual system that is Nicholas will drift over northern Louisiana Saturday and Sunday, acting as a focal mechanism for scattered to, at times, numerous showers and storms to blossom near. Expect highs in the middle 80s, lows in the lower 70s. Since the airmass over the region originated from the tropics means any storms that develop could yield high rainfall rates – keeping a risk for localized flooding in the poor-drainage and low-lying areas. Rain won’t be constant and there will be opportunities for sun to break through the clouds – but be prepared to alter plans in the event rain catches up to you.
EXTENDED FORECAST: Our soupy airmass will remain in place as high pressure to our east continues a general flow off the Gulf of Mexico – this will help to spark daily chances for showers and storms amid variably cloudy skies through mid-week. A strong cold front will approach the region mid-late week, finally scouring out the remnant moisture left behind from Nicholas. On the front end of the week – highs will be in the middle 80s; on the backend, with drier air filter in, highs will be near 80.
TALKIN’ TROPICS: Nicholas continues to spin down over Louisiana, spreading scattered downpours toward Mississippi and Alabama as well. The storm’s circulation will continue fade, but its remnant moisture and a residual trough will linger around the southeast through much of the next few days. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, three other disturbances – one off the Bahamas has a ‘high’ chance for development off the southeast coast. This system will likely skirt just off the Carolina coast on its way out to sea Another featuring a ‘high’ chance of development coming off western Africa - right behind it, another wave that shows a ‘low’ chance for development in the next five days.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
September 16, 2021
Persistent, Stagnant Moisture-Laden Pattern Remains Behind Nicholas
THURSDAY: Nicholas’ circulation will continue to fall apart, but its moisture will linger over the area through the day – expect a variably cloudy sky with scattered showers and storms developing at random throughout the day. Expect highs in the lower to middle 80s. Downpours that develop could be heavy in nature. Scattered showers will continue at times overnight with lows in the lower 70s.
FRIDAY: Still with a faint resemblance of a circulation to our west – a continued deep flow off the Gulf of Mexico amid warm, unstable air will help to kick up scattered to, at times, numerous downpours amid variably to mostly cloudy skies to round out the work week. Highs will still make their way into the lower to middle 80s. Downpours will have some staying power after sunset with lows in the 70s amid mostly cloudy skies.
EXTENDED FORECAST: Even through Nicholas’ circulation will fall apart over the area – the remnant moisture will hang around through the next several days. This will keep things muggy with highs trending back toward the middle 80s with a daily risk for showers and storms amid a mix of clouds and sun. A drier air-mass is about 7-10 days away from moving toward the region.
TALKIN’ TROPICS: Nicholas continues to spin down over Louisiana, spreading rain toward Mississippi and Alabama as well. The storm itself will fade through late week, but its remnant moisture will linger around the southeast through much of the next 10 days. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, three other disturbances – one off the Bahamas has a ‘high’ chance for development off the southeast coast. This system will likely skirt just off the Carolina coast on its way out to sea Another featuring a ‘high’ chance of development coming off western Africa - right behind it, another wave that shows a ‘low’ chance for development in the next five days.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
September 15, 2021
Tropical Rains Continue Wednesday; Lingering Moisture Keeps Pattern Unsettled
WEDNESDAY: Nicholas will continue to make its presence known over the state as it sluggishly shift eastward. Expect periods of rain and storms to continue to rotate over the area. Rain could continue to come down quick, fast and in a hurry in areas south of I-20 where an additional 1-2" of rain could be possible. Expect clouds to hold firm with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Rain coverage will through the afternoon and evening hours. Lows will fall back in the lower 70s amid mostly cloudy skies.
THURSDAY: Nicholas’ circulation will continue to fall apart, but its moisture will linger over the area through the day – expect a variably cloudy sky with scattered showers and storms developing at random throughout the day. Expect highs in the lower to middle 80s. Downpours that develop could be heavy in nature. Scattered showers will continue at times overnight with lows in the lower 70s.
EXTENDED FORECAST: Even through Nicholas’ circulation will fall apart over the area – the remnant moisture will hang around through the next several days. This will keep things muggy with highs trending back toward the middle to upper 80s with a daily risk for showers and storms amid a mix of clouds and sun. A drier air-mass is about 10-12 days away from moving toward the region.
TALKIN’ TROPICS: Nicholas continues to spin down over Louisiana, spreading rain toward Mississippi and Alabama as well. The storm itself will fade through mid-week, but its remnant moisture will linger around the southeast through much of the next 10 days. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, three other disturbances – one off the Bahamas has a ‘medium’ chance for development off the southeast coast. Another featuring a ‘high’ chance of development coming off western Africa - right behind it, another wave that shows a ‘low’ chance for development in the next five days.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
September 14, 2021
Tropical Moisture From Nicholas Yields Tropical Downpours Mid-Week
TUESDAY: Clouds will hang over central and southwest Mississippi as Nicholas treks closer to the region. Gradually through the day, chances for rain and storms will also increase as the rain impacts spread eastward. Highs will top in the lower to middle 80s. Winds will also turn a bit breezy at times; gusting to 30-35 mph at times, mainly in southwest Mississippi. Rain bands from Nicholas will continue to rotate in overnight with heavy rain at times. A rogue spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out, but the risk remains low. Rainfall amounts of 1-3" possible through the day.
WEDNESDAY: Nicholas will continue to make its presence known over the state as it sluggishly shift eastward. Expect periods of rain and storms to continue to rotate over the area. Rain could continue to come down quick, fast and in a hurry in areas south of I-20 where an additional 1-2" of rain could be possible. Expect clouds to hold firm with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Rain coverage will decrease a bit into the overnight hours with lows in the lower 70s.
EXTENDED FORECAST: Even through Nicholas’ circulation will fall apart over the area – the remnant moisture will hang around through the next several days. This will keep things muggy with highs trending back toward the middle to upper 80s with a daily risk for showers and storms amid a mix of clouds and sun. A drier air-mass is about 10-12 days away from moving toward the region.
TALKIN’ TROPICS: Nicholas has made its way to the mid-upper Texas coast this morning, spreading rain and wind farther north through Texas and Louisiana. The storm will spread its rain bands farther east to impact Mississippi through Tuesday, Wednesday and parts of Thursday. Heavy rain, gusty breezes and a spin-up tornado or two can’t be ruled out. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, two other disturbances – one off the Bahamas has a ‘medium’ chance for development off the southeast coast and the other featuring a ‘high’ chance of development coming off western Africa.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
September 13, 2021
Fall Preview Fades; Moisture-Laden Nicholas Nears
MONDAY: Our taste of fall has come to an abrupt end across central and southwest Mississippi as moisture begins to flow in off the Gulf of Mexico. Expect skies to become variably cloudy to mostly cloudy with opportunities for scattered showers to push in through the day. Highs will top out in the middle 80s. Shower opportunities hang around overnight amid mainly cloudy skies. Lows will drop near 70.
TUESDAY: The flow off the Gulf continues between high pressure anchored to our east and Tropical Storm Nicholas moving inland along the upper Texas coast. Once again, this will bring more waves of rain and storms through the day with highs in the middle 80s. Rain potential, especially south of I-20 late in the day, could be heavy in nature. Rainy periods will continue overnight with lows near 70.
EXTENDED FORECAST: The persistent flow of moisture off the Gulf and proximity to Nicholas will help to facilitate rain chance through much of the week ahead across central and southwest Mississippi. By the end of the week, 1-4" of rain will be possible; lowest amounts farther north, highest to the south. Highs will stay, generally, in the 80s – lows near 70.
TALKIN’ TROPICS: Tropical Storm Nicholas has formed in the southwest Gulf of Mexico - moving northward near the western edge of the Gulf. The storm will spread waves of rain and wind along the coastal areas of northern Mexico, south Texas and western Louisiana. The system is expected to slow down as it moves onshore, spreading rain eastward toward our area through mid-week. Locally, this system will be more so 'rain with a name', with that being said, the possibility for localized flooding will be possible and being on the eastern edge of the system, we can't rule out occasional gusty breezes and, while the risk is low, it's non-zero for a few spin-up tornadoes as the storm winds down through mid-week. Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, two other disturbances are noted – the closest being off the southeast coast, moving northward through mid-late week, staying just offshore of the Carolinas as it drifts northward. The other, coming off western Africa has a high chance to become our next system on the board.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
Fall Preview Fades; Moisture-Laden Nicholas Nears
MONDAY: Our taste of fall has come to an abrupt end across central and southwest Mississippi as moisture begins to flow in off the Gulf of Mexico. Expect skies to become variably cloudy to mostly cloudy with opportunities for scattered showers to push in through the day. Highs will top out in the middle 80s. Shower opportunities hang around overnight amid mainly cloudy skies. Lows will drop near 70.
TUESDAY: The flow off the Gulf continues between high pressure anchored to our east and Tropical Storm Nicholas moving inland along the upper Texas coast. Once again, this will bring more waves of rain and storms through the day with highs in the middle 80s. Rain potential, especially south of I-20 late in the day, could be heavy in nature. Rainy periods will continue overnight with lows near 70.
EXTENDED FORECAST: The persistent flow of moisture off the Gulf and proximity to Nicholas will help to facilitate rain chance through much of the week ahead across central and southwest Mississippi. By the end of the week, 1-4" of rain will be possible; lowest amounts farther north, highest to the south. Highs will stay, generally, in the 80s – lows near 70.
TALKIN’ TROPICS: Tropical Storm Nicholas has formed in the southwest Gulf of Mexico - moving northward near the western edge of the Gulf. The storm will spread waves of rain and wind along the coastal areas of northern Mexico, south Texas and western Louisiana. The system is expected to slow down as it moves onshore, spreading rain eastward toward our area through mid-week. Locally, this system will be more so 'rain with a name', with that being said, the possibility for localized flooding will be possible and being on the eastern edge of the system, we can't rule out occasional gusty breezes and, while the risk is low, it's non-zero for a few spin-up tornadoes as the storm winds down through mid-week. Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, two other disturbances are noted – the closest being off the southeast coast, moving northward through mid-late week, staying just offshore of the Carolinas as it drifts northward. The other, coming off western Africa has a high chance to become our next system on the board.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
September 10, 2021
Fall-Like Air Lingers; Summery Moisture Returns Next Week
FRIDAY: After the cool start, expect sunshine to win out the day and a nice rebound through the afternoon hours. Morning 50s and 60s will give way to afternoon 80s amid a fresh northerly breeze. Under clear skies again, lows will fall back to the upper 50s and lower 60s into early Saturday morning.
WEEKEND PLANNER: With high pressure over the area – our weather pattern remains quiet through the upcoming weekend. Sunshine continues to prevail Saturday with highs topping out near 90 amid the lower humidity. Gradually, humidity levels will increase as high pressure slips eastward. A few pop-up downpours could be a part of the Sunday afternoon story, mainly south of I-20. Highs will still manage the lower 90s amid mostly to partly sunny skies.
EXTENDED FORECAST: As high pressure moves east, an upper disturbance will sneak to our west – lodging Mississippi between the competing southerly flow patterns off the Gulf of Mexico. Expect a daily risk for rain and storms, but not a complete washout with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. At times, periods of rain could be heavy amid partly sunny to variably cloudy skies.
TALKIN' TROPICS: Hurricane Larry continue to push northward past Bermuda - zooming toward the Canadian Maritimes and heading toward Greenland - where it could very well bring several feet of snow with its moisture into next week. Mindy has faded in the western Atlantic. Farther away, another disturbance has a HIGH chance of development near western Africa - that system will likely not be an issue for the US mainland. Closer to home, another disturbance with a HIGH chance for development in the next few days could enter the western Gulf of Mexico. While we don't anticipate direct impacts - indirectly, a surge of moisture will help to yield better chance for showers and storms across central and southwest Mississippi into early next week. We'll continue to monitor its progress over the next few days.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
September 09, 2021
Early Fall Preview Late Week; Summer Air Returns Next Week
THURSDAY: In the wake of our front, drier air will rush into central and southwest Mississippi – ushering in a ‘fall-esque’ crispness. After starting in the 60s, we’ll rebound to the middle to upper 80s under a mainly sunny sky. Winds may be a bit breezy at times from the north, gusting to 20 mph at times. Overnight, clear skies will allow for lows to fall through the 60s; a few cool pockets could briefly drop into the upper 50s by early Friday morning.
FRIDAY: After the cool start, expect sunshine to win out the day and a nice rebound through the afternoon hours. Morning 50s and 60s will give way to afternoon 80s amid a fresh northerly breeze. Under clear skies again, lows will fall back to the lower 60s into early Saturday morning.
EXTENDED FORECAST: With high pressure over the area – our weather pattern remains quiet through the upcoming weekend. Sunshine continues to prevail Saturday with highs topping out near 90 amid the lower humidity. Gradually, humidity levels will increase as high pressure slips eastward. A few pop-up downpours could be a part of the Sunday afternoon story, mainly south of I-20. Highs will still manage the lower 90s amid mostly to partly sunny skies. Next week features daily chances for rain and storms, but not a complete washout with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
TALKIN' TROPICS: Hurricane Larry continues nears Bernuda today - taking a close pass at the island today, lashing it with rain and tropical storm force winds. The storm continue to push northward, gradually weakening - but is still expect to bring some impacts to the Canadian Maritimes and even, in its extra-tropical form this weekend, bringing snows to Greenland. Tropical Depression Mindy will get torn apart as it moves eastward off the SE US coastline, but not before bringing waves of rain for Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. Two disturbances in the Atlantic basin bear watching as well - mainly, the cluster of storms in the western Caribbean that will drift into the Bay of Campeche into the weekend. While it may not form into a consolidated system, it is likely to yield a plume of moisture that could better chances for showers and storms across the Gulf States, especially Texas, into next week. We'll continue to monitor it and the other system moving off western Africa.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx
September 08, 2021
Front Ushers in Fall-Like Air Late Week
WEDNESDAY: Our second front will on approach the area through Wednesday evening – ahead of it, expect a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures spiking into the lower to middle 90s for most areas. A few pop-up storms can’t be ruled out, but overall coverage remains low. As the front sweeps south, the drier air will begin to filter in – lows will drop into the 60s by early Thursday.
THURSDAY: In the wake of our front, drier air will rush into central and southwest Mississippi – ushering in a ‘fall-esque’ crispness. After starting in the 60s, we’ll rebound to the middle to upper 80s under a mainly sunny sky. Overnight, clear skies will allow for lows to fall through the 60s; a few cool pockets could briefly drop into the upper 50s by early Friday morning.
EXTENDED FORECAST: Bright sunshine and the ‘fall-esque’ feel in the humidity department will hang around through late week and into the start of the weekend. We’ll be in the 80s for highs Friday, near 90 Saturday with mainly sunny skies and lower humidity. Lows late week will be in the lower to middle 60s. Gradually, we’ll rebound back into ‘normal’ territory by Sunday and into next week with highs in the lower 90s. Chances for a few storms could return as early as Sunday; more scattered activity by mid-week.
TALKIN' TROPICS: Hurricane Larry continues to track closer to Bermuda - likely not hitting the island directly, but tropical storm conditions are expected through late week. Along the US East Coast, while no direct impacts are expected, rip currents and large swells remain an indirect issue that will last for a few more days as the storm turns northward. Elsewhere - in the Gulf of Mexico, a tropical wave is spreading periods of heavy rain along the northern Gulf Coast, but is expected to shift eastward and will not directly impact Mississippi. Regardless of development, the storm is expected to yield heavy rains for parts of Alabama, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina through late week. Another system rolling of western Africa has a LOW chance for development through the next several days and is expected to drift farther north, more quickly, through the weekend.
Patrick Ellis
WLBT/FOX 40 First Alert Meteorologist
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram: @PatrickEllisWx